3D architecture of the northern Hellenides fold and thrust belt of Albania, and implications for maximum moment magnitude estimation for the southern Albanide Frontal Thrust

Based on a series of balanced cross-sections, we present the first 3D structural model of the northern part of the outer Hellenides active fold and thrust belt exposed in Albania and its adjacent offshore areas. This sector of the Hellenides includes Permian to Eocene pelagic basin and carbonate platform successions, overlain by synorogenic strata and deformed since the Oligocene. The tectonic setting of this area results from a structural style change that occurred around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary, shifting from thin-skinned to thick-skinned thrusting. Active basement faulting, highlighted by the Mw 6.4 November 2019 Dürres earthquake, indicates the presence of deeper seismogenic sources in addition to shallow thrusts within the sedimentary cover. Integrating well-established scaling relationships with fault parameters extracted from our 3D structural model which includes active basement thrusts in the frontal part of the fold and thrust belt, the seismic potential associated with the major seismogenic source in the region (i.e. the Southern Albanide Frontal Thrust) was estimated, bearing major implications for seismic hazard evaluation in this densely populated area.