Community-Based Approaches to Debris Flow Hazard Analysis in the Sibillini Mountain Range (Central Apennines, Italy).

Herein, we propose new methods for interpreting the debris flow phenomena affecting the Sibillini Mountains (central Apennines, Italy), based on the main characteristics and mechanisms of these hazards and their associated risk, as studied by applying advanced GIS tools to a geodatabase including the morphometric parameters of many surveyed debris flows as well as topographic and climatic information. The study area is characterized by mainly calcareous lithologies belonging to the Umbria–Marche Succession, which are frequently covered by Quaternary continental deposits. Slopes and deep transversal valleys are strongly influenced by Pliocene–Quaternary tectonics. Our main objectives were (a) to provide a comprehensive survey of the local morphologies and dynamics of debris flows and localize, catalog, sample and implement them in a geodatabase, as well as monitor them; (b) to forecast potential future debris flows in the study area based upon their evolutionary processes (e.g., dynamic evolution of debris flows, time of recurrence, removed volume of materials) and, in doing so, evaluate hazards and risks for human activities, as well as possibly apply this prediction method to other areas with similar geological and morpho-climatic characteristics; and (c) to share scientific information with society, with the goal of involving citizens in a new and sustainable method of territorial management.