Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibility, Macerata Province (Central Italy)

Every year, institutions spend a large amount of resources to solve emergencies generated by hydrogeological instability. The identification of areas potentially subject to hydrogeological risks could allow for more effective prevention. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to assess the susceptibility of territories where no instability phenomena have ever been detected. In order to obtain this type of result, statistical assessments of the problem cannot be ignored. In this case, it was chosen to analyse the susceptibility to landslide using a flexible method that is attracting great interest in the international scientific community, namely the Weight of Evidence (WoE). This model-building procedure, for calculating landslide susceptibility, used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software by means of mathematical operations between rasters and took into account parameters such as geology, acclivity, land use, average annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events. Thus, this innovative research links landslide susceptibility with triggering factors such as extreme precipitation. The resulting map showed a low weight of precipitation in identifying the areas most susceptible to landslides, although all the parameters included contributed to a more accurate estimate, which is necessary to preserve human life, buildings, heritage and any productive activity.