Land-cover changes in a remote area of central Apennines (Italy) and management directions

In the Mediterranean mountains and hills spontaneous reforestation occurred in the last fifty years at the expenses of open habitats. This process was triggered by depopulation and cessation of traditional farming. In this paper we investigate landscape changes in one such area in central Apennines (Italy), which is currently almost uninhabited after centuries of human presence; we give a quantitative description of the changes that occurred between 1955 and 2006, and we discuss their management implications in a multidisciplinary context. To do this, we used aerial photos and field surveys to map land-use/land-cover classes in 1955, 1978 and 2006; we then employed a transition matrix model based on Markov chains, together with landscape and class metrics, to analyze gains and losses of each class over time. Our results show that almost all classes were replaced directly by woodlands: no “shrub stage” was observed and a surprisingly brief interval of about 25 years was sufficient for canopy closure on abandoned open lands; furthermore, some classes increased their transformation rate from period 1 (1955–1978) to period 2 (1978–2006), while others did not. Metrics show that reforestation is accompanied by simplification and homogenization of the original mosaic, with no intermediate fragmentation process. We discuss current management plans and propose strategies that take into account the presence of endangered species: management should exploit the spontaneous reforestation and promote the creation and preservation of mature forests; concurrently, it should plan to maintain the last “islands” of grasslands, even if small.