APPLICATION OF THE EMPIRICAL PREDICTIVE DAMAGE MODEL OF HISTORICAL CHURCHES

Strong seismic events are the main cause of serious damage to cultural heritage, especially to historical churches characterized by a lack of efficient resisting mechanisms and by high vulnerability due to their structural systems peculiarities. Their poor seismic performance is demonstrated by the recurrence of specific seismic damage mechanisms. In this paper, an empirical probabilistic damage predictive model recently presented in the literature is used to provide a scenario dependent risk assessment in a seismic prone area in Italy. In this response model, the damage is expressed by a continuous index and the seismic action is described by a scalar intensity measure. For the illustrative case study, a sample of churches falling into a limited area of Marche Region, hit by the Central Italy 2016 seismic sequence, has been chosen. The sample includes all the historical churches belonging to the Archdiocese of Camerino-San Severino. The damage scenario following a seismic event of magnitude 5.8, generated by the Camerino fault, has been evaluated to illustrate the capability of this model in the prediction of post-earthquake situation. Risk maps obtained by means of the method presented in the paper, can provide a notable support to the organization of post-event emergency actions and to the planning of preventive actions for the risk mitigation.